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The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains a seeming dead heat less than four weeks before the election according to a string of surveys this month, with the latest poll showing Harris up two points.
Trump trails Harris 51% to 49% in a Harvard CAPS/Harris survey of registered voters released Monday, after the two were tied in the groups’ September survey.
Trump and Harris were tied at 48% in a new NBC poll of registered voters released Sunday, while an ABC/Ipsos poll, also released Sunday, shows Harris with a two-point (50%-48%) advantage among likely voters, within the ABC poll’s 2.5-point margin of error—a shift after both ABC and NBC showed Harris with a roughly five-point lead last month.
A CBS/YouGov poll released Sunday showed Harris leading Trump 51%-48% with likely voters—slightly tighter than Harris’ 52%-48% lead last month—while Harris has a narrower 50%-49% edge in the seven battleground states.
Other polls show the vice president with a larger edge, though the race has tightened in recent weeks: Harris is up four points over Trump, 49% to 45%, in an Economist/YouGov poll of likely voters released Wednesday, after leading him by five points (49% to 46%) in the groups’ Sept. 30 survey.
Harris is up 49% to 46% in a New York Times/Siena poll out Tuesday, the first time she’s led Trump in the groups’ polling since July.
Harris leads by five points in Morning Consult’s weekly poll, also released Tuesday, consistent with her standing in last week’s Morning Consult survey.
Three other polls over the past month—a Quinnipiac survey released Sept. 24, a New York Times/Siena poll out Sept. 19 and a CNN/SSRS poll released Sept. 24—showed Trump and Harris tied, while virtually all other polls show Harris ahead.
Harris has erased Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, though her edge has decreased slightly over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average.
Harris is favored to win 53 times out of 100, compared to 47 for Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast. Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver puts Harris’ odds at 52.2/47.6, writing he’s “never seen an election in which the forecast spent more time in the vicinity of 50/50.”
That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Harris with a 2.9-point lead, and Nate Silver has Harris up three points in his Silver Bulletin forecast.
Most surveys show Harris leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada, while Trump has an advantage in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages—but all seven swing states are within single digits.
A poll from NBC News released Sept. 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, the lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll—which was conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters—showed 54% supported Harris compared with 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said they were unsure who they would vote for. The support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden was running against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly lower than past leads Democratic candidates have had, including a 36-point lead in 2020 polling and 50-point lead in 2016 polling. The poll had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.
